An Optimistic View
Good evening colleagues, friends, fellow mining industry participants.
It is always slightly dangerous to give an ex-mining CEO a microphone during dinner. We are genetically predisposed to three things: long-life assets, longer feasibility studies… and very long speeches. I will try to not disappoint!
Let me start with the obvious: if you read the global headlines, you would think we are living in the end times. With gold at over $5000/oz as proof of that! Wars in Europe and the Middle East. Volatile geopolitics that make commodity prices look stable. Trade wars. Sanctions. Tariffs and counter-tariffs. Supply chain “friend-shoring”. Whatever that means.
And yet in the middle of all that I have rarely been more optimistic about the future of South African mining over the next five to ten years. Yes, I said optimistic. The word that does not trend well on mining WhatsApp groups.
If you are old enough to have been around the mining industry for 45 years, you have seen a lot of this before.
Gold running up to $800/oz in 1980 (I was in my 3rd year at varsity) to then drift down for 21 years to $251,70/oz in August 1998 when Gordon Brown finally finished dumping the UK’s reserves. At the time of the Brown Bottom I was CEO of Harmony, contemplating how we could survive at R35 000/kg
My first senior executive role was in 1994 when I became GM of Beatrix gold mine in the Gengold stable, exactly 1 week after the Merriespruit disaster, which killed 17 employees and family members of Beatrix when the slimes dam collapsed on the night of 22 Feb 1994.
On arrival at the mine on 1 March 1994, three and a half weeks before the elections, there was a convoy of busses, waiting to transport the 600 Zulu workers back to KZN as an attempt to defuse the factional fighting between the IFP and ANC/Num which played out in our hostels at the time. Of course, as a 33-year-old mining engineer, I was perfectly qualified to handle such complexity.
Let me make 5 points and then conclude with why I am positive about the future of mining in South Africa:
Geopolitics: When the World Gets Nervous, Resources Matter - We are entering an era where resources are no longer just economic inputs; they are geopolitical instruments. The war in Ukraine reminded Europe that energy security is national security. Tensions between the US and China have reminded everyone that supply chains are strategic assets. Eskom has reminded us that energy transitions are complex, not linear. In that context, South Africa sits on something extraordinary: mineral endowment that the world cannot easily substitute. Platinum group metals. Manganese. Chrome. Vanadium. Titanium. Rare earth potential. Battery metals in various stages of development. The global energy transition is a materials story. You cannot electrify the world without metals. You cannot decarbonise heavy industry without PGMs. You cannot build batteries without manganese. You cannot secure supply chains without diversified sources. And here we are — slightly disorganised, occasionally exasperated — but sitting on some of the most strategic minerals on earth. That is not a small thing. If the next decade is defined by a scramble for critical minerals, then South Africa is not on the sidelines. We are on the field. We just need to make sure we know which direction we’re running. Critical Minerals: From Rock to Relevance - There’s a lot of talk about “critical minerals strategies.” Every major economy now has one. The United States. The European Union. China, of course, has had one for decades. Even middle powers are rewriting their mining policies through a critical-minerals lens. I’ll rather not say much about our own “roadmap”. The key shift is this: minerals are no longer seen as commodities alone. They are viewed as strategic enablers of industrial policy, climate policy and defense policy. Those with minerals have leverage! South Africa has an opportunity here — but only if we think beyond extraction. For too long, we’ve debated beneficiation as if it were a moral obligation rather than an economic question. The next 5–10 years demand a more sophisticated approach. Where do we genuinely have competitive advantage in value chains? Where can we leverage existing infrastructure, skills and IP? Where can we partner — rather than posture? In PGMs, we have global leadership. In manganese, we have scale. In green hydrogen, we have ambition. The question is: can we align policy, capital and execution? Because the opportunity is real. The world wants diversified supply. It wants ESG-compliant supply. It wants stable jurisdictions. As one of the owners and Chairman of Manganese Metals Company, the only non-Chinese ElMn producer in the world, I do know what I am talking about. Government: From Friction to Partnership? We all have our stories. Permitting delays. Logistics failures. Power instability. Regulatory uncertainty. If therapy were tax-deductible, the mining industry would be profitable on therapy credits alone. But here’s the positive shift I see. There is a growing recognition — in government — that mining matters again. Not as a relic of the past. Not as a political punching bag. But as a strategic sector in a world that is revaluing minerals. The electricity reforms underway, however imperfect, are real. The logistics crisis has forced collaboration between Transnet and industry in ways that were unthinkable five years ago. Treasury is increasingly pragmatic about investment and fiscal realities. Is it fast enough? No. Is it perfect? Definitely not. Is it better than it was? Yes. And progress, in South Africa, is often incremental before it is visible. The next 5–10 years will require a different posture from us as industry leaders. Less adversarial theatre. More structured partnership. More technical support. More secondments. More shared accountability. We cannot simply outsource national competitiveness to Pretoria and then complain about the results. Infrastructure: The Unsexy Decider - Let’s be honest: geology we were given by God. Infrastructure we must build ourselves. The next decade will be decided less by what’s in the ground and more by what moves it above ground. Rail. Ports. Power. Water. If we solve logistics and energy — even partially — the upside is enormous. If we don’t, we will sterilise world-class ore bodies through inefficiency. But here again, I’m cautiously positive. The private sector participation in energy generation is accelerating. Mining companies are becoming energy companies — some of them with more solar panels than certain European countries. On logistics, the crisis has forced creativity. Dedicated export corridors. Third-party access discussions. Private investment models. None of this would have been politically conceivable a few years ago. Sometimes reform requires a crisis. South Africans do not waste a good crisis. We just take our time. ESG, Social License and the other hard stuff: The next decade will also test our social compact. Communities are more vocal. Investors are more demanding. Employees are more mobile. Young engineers have global options and moral expectations. The era of “minimum compliance” is over. But here’s the opportunity: South African mining has deep experience in complex social environments. We operate in real communities, not simulation models. We’ve made mistakes. We’ve learned hard lessons. I was 24 years old when I sat opposite Cyril Ramaphosa during mine level negotiations on Grootvlei Mine. We can truly teach the world about this shit! If we lean into transparency, measurable impact and genuine partnership, we can reposition the industry from extractive villain to development catalyst. Mining still creates upstream and downstream linkages. It still anchors regional economies. It still funds public revenue. It still provides high-skill employment at scale. In a country with South Africa’s unemployment rate, that is not trivial. But if you read my regular postings on this topic you will know that I believe that this is an area of huge unfulfilled potential. We must tell this story better — with data, humility and delivery.
Finally, the Macro View: Why I’m optimistic
Because global demand for all minerals is structurally increasing.
Because supply diversification is a geopolitical priority.
Because South Africa has scale, skills and mineral endowment.
Because reform, however uneven, is underway.
Because crisis has forced collaboration.
Because capital is still interested — if we are investable.
The next 5–10 years will not be easy. Commodity cycles will still cycle. Politics will still politic. Load-shedding may become load-reduction or load-management — we are very creative with terminology. But the structural fundamentals favour resource jurisdictions that can stabilise, partner and execute.
We do not need perfection. We need credible action.
Let me end with a few personal convictions. What Must We Do — As Leaders?
First: think longer term than the news cycle. Geopolitics is noisy; ore bodies are patient. Second: invest in capability — technical, digital, environmental. The next decade will reward efficiency and innovation. Third: engage constructively with government, even when it’s frustrating. Particularly when it’s frustrating. Fourth: nurture the next generation. The future CEO of a critical minerals champion may currently be a bursary student in Kuruman. If Union Corporation didn’t give me a mining engineering bursary in 1988 in Rustenburg, I would definitely not have joined the mining Industry. And finally: maintain perspective.
South African mining has survived wars, sanctions, commodity collapses, the transition to democracy, regulatory overhauls and Eskom schedules that read like Sudoku puzzles.
We are still here. And not just here — globally relevant.
If the world is entering a minerals decade, then South Africa has a choice: spectator or strategic participant. I, for one, believe we can be the latter. We have the rocks. We have the people. We increasingly have the urgency.
Now we need alignment.
Ladies and gentlemen, the next five to ten years will test us — but they will also reward courage, collaboration and competence. In mining, hope is not a strategy. But neither is cynicism. Let’s choose disciplined optimism — backed by execution.
Thank you.
~ Z.B.S
