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比特币失守6.5万美元,去杠杆与市场动荡放大抛压,特朗普行情涨幅悉数回吐

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2026年2月6日 15:06 3 min read
Bitcoin
比特币失守6.5万美元,去杠杆与市场动荡放大抛压,特朗普行情涨幅悉数回吐

比特币失守6.5万美元,去杠杆与市场动荡放大抛压,特朗普行情涨幅悉数回吐

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周五,比特币重挫跌破6.5万美元。随着杠杆头寸被迫平仓、风险资产整体承压,市场情绪明显转弱,加密货币抛售迅速放大,美国总统特朗普胜选后开启的一轮涨幅已被全部回吐。

截至记者发稿,欧易OKX行情显示,比特币价格跌破63000美元,最新报62841.90美元,日内跌幅达6.88%。比特币自2025年10月创下126223美元历史高位以来,这一轮下跌已抹去一半市值,跌势并迅速蔓延至其他代币、相关交易型基金以及持有大量比特币的上市公司。一些加密公司开始收缩业务、削减成本。

流动性较弱的小型投机性代币跌幅尤为惨烈。数据显示,MarketVector数字资产100小盘指数在过去一年内下跌约70%。

杠杆解除与风险偏好退潮叠加

去年,在特朗普公开表达对加密货币较为友好的立场后,比特币价格一路攀升,投机情绪迅速升温。然而进入本月,市场裂痕开始显现。

比特币自1月中旬起加速回落,并触发连锁反应。一方面,部分基金因赎回压力被迫卖出;另一方面,高杠杆头寸遭遇强制平仓,加剧了价格波动。

“市场中的恐惧和不确定性非常明显,”加密资产机构Ergonia业务拓展负责人克里斯·纽豪斯表示,“在缺乏坚定买盘的情况下,每一轮ETF赎回和清算都会产生连锁效应。”他指出,这种机制“放大了每一次下跌幅度,并强化了防御性仓位”。

宏观预期变化冲击加密市场

市场分析认为,本轮抛售并非单一因素所致。Marex高级全球市场策略师伊兰·索洛特表示,科技股回调、黄金走强、整体避险情绪升温,以及市场对加密资产估值逻辑的重新审视,共同推动了这一轮下跌。

长期以来,比特币常被宣传为对冲通胀的工具,甚至一定程度上被视为黄金或美元的替代投资标的。但在本轮调整中,其走势更接近高风险资产,未能在市场承压时发挥避险功能。随着机构资金参与度提高,比特币在广泛去风险过程中反而更容易受到冲击,尤其是在近期科技股与贵金属同时剧烈波动的环境下。

“短期前景仍偏谨慎,但最糟糕的阶段或许已经过去,”索洛特表示,“历史上,这类剧烈波动往往被长期投资者视为布局机会,未来也可能再次如此。”

当前走势也让部分市场人士联想到2022年的加密货币崩盘。当时,在超宽松货币政策退出、美联储加息周期启动后,比特币在流动性持续收紧的环境中显著回落,并于2022年11月跌至约1.58万美元,较前期高点回落幅度超过六成。

近期抛售也与货币政策预期变化有关。市场传出前美联储理事凯文·沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席的消息后,投资者开始担忧其可能推动缩减资产负债表。瑞士宝盛集团次世代研究团队的曼努埃尔·维列加斯·弗朗切斯基表示,市场担心沃什立场偏鹰,而“缩表对加密货币并不友好”。

德意志银行在致客户报告中写道,此轮全面下跌的核心推手是上市交易基金的大规模赎回。自2025年10月市场转弱以来,这些基金每月资金流出规模已达数十亿美元。今年1月,美国现货比特币ETF单月流出资金超过30亿美元,此前11月和12月分别流出约70亿美元和20亿美元。

德银分析师认为,这种持续性资金外流显示,传统投资者对加密资产的兴趣正在减弱,整体情绪趋于悲观。

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GasGx Analysis
Title: Bitcoin's Slide, Leverage Unwinding, and Market Volatility

In the wake of a recent plunge in Bitcoin, which has now fallen below $65,000, the market is witnessing a significant shift in sentiment. This downward trend, triggered by factors such as leverage unwinding and risk aversion, has led to a rapid sell-off across cryptocurrencies. The current market conditions are characterized by heightened fear and uncertainty, with some crypto companies having to scale back operations and cut costs.

The Bitcoin price has plummeted to $62,841.90, marking a decline of 6.88% within a single day. This sharp drop follows a series of events that have collectively impacted the cryptocurrency market. Firstly, the speculative nature of Bitcoin, combined with its high volatility, has made it an attractive target for short-term investors. However, this has also created a situation wherein large numbers of coins are held by those who are speculating rather than investing for the long term.

One of the primary drivers behind this market downturn is the unwinding of leverage positions. As mentioned in the article, "with leveraged positions forced to close and risk assets overall under pressure," this has led to a surge in selling pressure. Additionally, the market's reaction to the President Trump's victory has been reflected in the sell-off of Bitcoin. The rally that was initiated after his election has been completely wiped out, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards more conservative asset classes.

Furthermore, the macroeconomic environment has also played a role in driving this downturn. The article highlights that the market's reactions to various factors, including technology stocks' pullback, gold's strengthening, and escalated risk aversion, have all contributed to the current market downturn. These factors have not only affected individual cryptocurrencies but have also influenced broader market trends.

The current state of the market suggests that while the worst phase may have passed, there is still considerable uncertainty about the future direction of the cryptocurrency market. Historically, such dramatic fluctuations have often been opportunities for long-term investors to enter the market at lower prices. However, given the current environment, it is essential to consider the potential risks associated with holding cryptocurrencies.

One key aspect of this market downturn is the increasing interest from traditional investors in traditional assets. The article mentions that "these funds have been forced to sell due to redemption pressure;" this indicates a shift in investor preferences away from cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, concerns around the Fed's potential interest rate hikes and the withdrawal of U.S. dollars from reserves have further exacerbated market volatility.

In light of these developments, it is crucial for investors to carefully evaluate their portfolios and consider alternative investment options that align with their long-term goals. While Bitcoin may continue to face challenges, there are still opportunities for those willing to navigate through these uncertain times.

In conclusion, the recent downturn in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is a reflection of the complex interplay between economic factors, market sentiment, and technological innovation. As the market continues to evolve, it will be important for investors to remain informed and adapt their strategies accordingly.
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