如果你最近还在等一根“政策大阳线”把币价抬回去，那这两天的市场给了一个非常冷的现实： 比特币（BTC）一度逼近 67,000 美元，创下 2024 年 10 月以来最低 。更扎心的是—— 从去年历史高点算起，回撤超过 45%，特朗普第二任期以来的全部涨幅被基本抹平。
比特币（BTC）一度逼近 67,000 美元，创下 2024 年 10 月以来最低
Since the historical highs of last year, the pullback has exceeded 45%, essentially erasing all gains since Trump's second term.
From the peak 45% pullback: Trump's bull market is dead
This is not a normal callback, this is a 'narrative settlement'.
1）这波砸盘的核心导火索：一句话击碎“国家兜底幻想”
Markets fear not falling, but the collapse of faith.
这次压垮情绪的关键节点，是美国财政部长 Scott Bessent 在听证会上被问到“财政部能不能买比特币”时，直接给了否定答案： 没权力，也不具备授权。
没权力，也不具备授权。
Many people's previous 'Trump-friendly cryptographic' imaginations had a default assumption of an implicit script.
监管会松、机构会来、甚至“国家级配置”会出现。
Now this sentence has the effect of: Don't dream, government won't pick you up.
Don't dream, the government won't come for you.
When the market realizes that 'policy cushion' is not there, the valuation anchor of risk assets will be instantaneously broken - you see this kind of breakout.
2）真正的压力来自链上之外：ETF 被套筹码像“悬在头顶的炸弹”
The most important thing in this material is not the price, but the structure.
10X Research 点了一个非常危险的点：
Bitcoin ETF holders are generally 'underwater' with an average cost of around $85,000.
以目前 67,000 左右的价位算，很多人的心理状态不是“长期看好”，而是“解套就跑”。
The current market holding cost is around $82,000.
This will lead to a very unpleasant market behavior:
每一次反弹，都会遇到被套盘的“减仓墙”；
反弹高度越低，市场越容易形成共识： “涨不动” 。
“涨不动”
If it doesn't rise, it will continue to grind and smash until all leverage, confidence, and liquidity are squeezed dry.
以太坊 ETF 情况也不好：10X 提到 平均成本口径下，投资者大约亏 31% 。
平均成本口径下，投资者大约亏 31%
When the 'ETF' channel itself becomes a trapped position, new capital will naturally be more hesitant - who is willing to become your opponent in unwinding?
3）为什么说“可能还没见底”：因为这是一轮典型的熊市结构
10X Research 直接给的结论很明确：
Bitcoin is still in a bearish structure at a larger level, with no strong catalysts, and positions are still crowded, with high downside risks.
Bitcoin is still in a larger-scale bearish structure.
翻译成白话：
这不是“消息刺激跌一下”，而是“趋势性下行+信心不足”的组合拳。
在这种结构里，市场通常不会 V 型反转，而会经历更痛苦的阶段：
反弹—受阻—再跌—反弹更弱—再跌。
4）'Death Spiral' this term arises because it is the destiny of pure emotional assets
Michael Burry 的观点很激进，但它之所以能引发传播，是因为它抓住了一个事实：
Bitcoin's short-term pricing is increasingly becoming a pure risk preference indicator, rather than a gold substitute for offsetting the depreciation of the dollar.
当黄金、白银等硬资产在宏观动荡里更像避险工具时，币圈更像高 Beta 风险资产：
风险偏好一冷、流动性一紧、杠杆一撤，就会出现连锁反应。
“死亡螺旋”不是玄学，往往就是：
下跌 → 强平/赎回 → 被动卖出 → 更下跌 → 更多赎回。
5）这次下跌还有一个“隐形推手”：新任美联储主席人选的鹰派预期
Materials mention that after Warsh's nomination, the market generally interpreted it more favorably, showing less aversion to cryptocurrencies.
原因很简单： 币价高度依赖“流动性宽松”与“降息预期” 。
币价高度依赖“流动性宽松”与“降息预期”
Once the market feels that interest rates will be higher, longer, or risk assets valuations need to be recalculated, cryptocurrencies are often at the forefront.
6）现在市场到底在等什么？只等两类东西
第一类： 明确的宏观转向
明确的宏观转向
For example, the path to interest rate cuts is clearer, the trend of the dollar weakening is confirmed again, and liquidity returns to expansion.
Second Category: Structural Changes in Supply and Demand
结构性供需变化
比如 ETF 的赎回压力明显减弱、长期资金重新净流入，或者链上出现确定性的增量需求（不是喊口号的“叙事”，是可量化的资金流）。
Without these two types of things, the rebound is more like a 'technical breather' than a trend reversal.
结尾：这次不是“抄底者的盛宴”，更像“叙事的淘汰赛”
Many people like to think that 67,000 is a bargain, but the real question is:
This price level, does the market have enough confidence and additional capital to take on ETF trapped positions and sell pressure after sentiment collapse?
If there's no, then what you see is not 'the end of the fall', but 'to the point where someone can't bear it any more'.