Monday 1/26 at 8 am and again natural gas, coal, nuclear and oil carrying 86% of the power generation needs from Texas to the Plains to Mid-Atlantic and up to NY/Northeast. A combination of ERCOT over forecasting load by 10 GW and Upper Plains wind increasing put wind/solar at 10% of generation, but of wind/solars' ~200 GW of nameplate generation only 37 GW of total output or 19% availability. As charts attached from PJM, MISO, ERCOT, SPP, NY and New England shows the U.S. power system must have the reliable natural gas/diesel, nuclear and coal to meet the load at extreme load periods. Even the battery storage is less useful here in the winter, with relatively steady loads throughout the entire day, as ERCOT only had 5 GW of output this morning with 17 GW of installed batteries.
And now the challenge shifts to natural gas availability during the extend cold that will continue for a week as the cold sets in production areas prone to well freeze offs. Spot Henry Hub gas at ~$25/mmbtu, with delivered gas into FL pricing at over $50/mmbtu tomorrow and suspect the NE at $100 - 200/mmbtu. Diesel alternative fuel is now much lower costs at ~$20/mmbtu natural gas equivalent for our dual fuel combustion turbines, but the generators, including
Florida Municipal Power Agency
(FMPA), have to manage how much diesel they use compared to the storage they have and how fast they can refill.
All of this fuel cost increases will impact power and home heating for most customers bills for January and February in pronounced ways beyond the recent power price spikes from capacity shortages in the Mid-Atlantic PJM market. Fortunately for the owning Member Cities of FMPA, the cost to their customers will have limited impact, if any.
Looking forward the Plains gets some wind increase today and tomorrow but then the winds calm the rest of the week again so real challenges will continue and the temperatures head back down Thursday - Sunday.
It is the hope that this longer term cold weather event covering 2/3rds of the country will convince generators and their regulators/legislators that retiring 80 - 95% available natural gas and coal plants right now is unwise unless the
U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)
and the Regions confirm there is plenty of excess capacity to meet the customers needs.
