Inflation expectations in Australia, globally and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz 2026 1. From an RBA article -> Reassessing Australian Financial Conditions Christopher Kent RBA Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) 26/03/2026 " Financial market participants have revised up their expectations of monetary policy rates in Australia and most advanced economies (Graph 8). The increase in Australia since the start of the conflict shown in orange has been less than some other advanced economies but it also came after an earlier increase shown in blue (reflecting relatively strong domestic data) that was not seen elsewhere , 2. From an Aljazeera article " How badly has the Iran war hit the global economy? The tell-tale signs " 16/03/2026 Note the Australia and USA are 8th and 9th respectively globally from the perspective of impacts to petrol prices following the 2026 conflict in the gulf. 3. From a BBC article 27/03/2026 "Three charts that are warning signs flashing for Trump on Iran war" Note the spike on US petrol prices per gallon, an increase from around $3 in the beginning of March 2026 to $3.98 at the end of March 2026 . 4. From the NY times 26/03/2026 "Europe Heads for Another Energy Shock in a Vulnerable State" Note the increase in Natural Gas prices in Europe from around 30 Euros per Megawatt hour in the beginning of March 2026 to around 50-60 Euros per Megawatt hour in end of March 2026 5. From a highly recommended long form article "A crude awakening" - Carlyle Group March 2026 "In 1979, a 4–5% physical shortfall triggered precautionary hoarding that doubled the effective demand impact. We estimate that precautionary demand could be 2-3 million b/d over the next 3-6 months. The physical disruption is the trigger; the behavioural response is the multiplier" "Energy has compressed to 3% of US equity market capitalisation, while technology and services have expanded to 53%. In the 1970s, energy equities at 25% of the S&P provided a natural portfolio hedge — as oil rose, energy stocks rose with it, partially insulating diversified investors. Every major geopolitical inflection point of the past fifty years — the end of the Cold War, 9/11, the global financial crisis, Ukraine — has triggered a rotation in capital allocation between asset-light and asset-heavy sectors." 6. From the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas "What the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for the global economy"- 20/03/2026 "For example, in 1973 and 1990 only a little more than 6 percent of global oil supplies was removed from the market and in 1979 and 1980 only about 4 percent. Today, we are concerned with a shortfall close to 20 percent, making this geopolitical event three to five times larger." 7. From the Carlyle Group "The old economy begins to take its revenge" Feb 2026 "Since October of last year, technology or new economy shares are down 5-10%, while old economy shares like energy, metals, and mining are up 30-50%. "
