Power Price no longer set by Gas, but by Coal at present (Iran-Conflict)
With uncertainty on the Carbon framework and subsequent relatively low CO2 pricing (EUR 70/t), commodity curves have again pushed out Gas in favour of hard coal in the merit order. Power price therefore do not react one on one with gas, aside of course from the fact that during day many hourly prices tend to go to zero due to renewables. Of course, when renewables would suffer from heatwaves (high cooling demand, PV down due to temperature losses) or from dunkelflaute (no renewables), coal fired stations won't make a difference and peak gas will have to be used. Positive news for batteries, and risks for consumers on price spikes on such days.
The power price remains a binary case: zero (even negative) during sunny days, high on other times as set by coal or gas. More than ever, the price of carbon and coal is decisive factors to observe in th ecoming months.
Attached our calculation of marginal costs, so easily to observe that the coal -> gas switch is again a matter of economics.
