A chart and a few numbers to understand how important every reliable MW of generation was in Florida for Winter Storm Fern, especially given the challenging load forecast for the 2/2 am peak that all were working with through the week leading up to including Sunday 2/1.
Winter Storm Fern was forecast to have Florida at all-time peak load and very close to being unable to meet all load for a couple of hours on Monday 2/2. This was the result of 36 hours of sustained cold in Central & South FL, with Orland reaching 100 year low of 24 degrees and wind chills of 5, well below our planning scenario lows of 32. FMPA was concerned the loss of one major plant could be challenging, given all utilities noted on Sunday 2/1 there would be no emergency power available on Monday morning 6 - 9 am until the sun was shining and thermal warming of homes would kick in (see chart).
Many of the Florida utilities scrambled for every MW they could find be it from one of 3 sources including 1) uprating the gas units to super peak levels for such cold conditions, 2) working with customers to run back-up generation they normally have for hurricanes or 3) communicating with our customers to have them shift power use to hours other than 6 - 9 am Monday morning.
For
Florida Municipal Power Agency
's 13 owner cities that own almost all the generation and get all their power from FMPA plus the 5 others that get most/all their power on 5 - 7 year contracts, the three sources were critically important with Members engaging with their customers starting late Thursday and through the weekend to get the needed load shifting out of the 6 - 9 am period.
1. FMPA had uprated it gas turbine fleet by 82 MW or 5% in the fall for the Winter of 2025/26. FMPA was also aware of 24 MW or 1.5% more of capacity available for super max operation if we could get the approval to put more on the transmission grid and we could get a variance on any permit exceedances from using more than allowable fuel input or emissions, which fortunately the
U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)
provided a Sec. 202c order for this within 5 hours of filing the request.
2. FMPA's members identified 52 MW of nameplate customer owned emergency/back-up generation that could be operated to reduce the load we would serve. This would provide a critical 2 - 3% load reduction. Again the DOE assisted by providing a separate Sec. 202c order for customer back-up generation to exceed operating or air permit limits during the defined 3 day event. That order was approved 9 hours after filing the separate request.
3. And finally the FMPA member cities, communications with customers to shift consumption out of the 6 - 9 am window resulted in an approximate 4 - 7% load reduction.
Taken together, these 3 actions for Monday provided the necessary "reserve margin" of 12 - 15% to serve the FMPA load and cover the loss of a 3rd party generation source that failed.
