Did an ERCOT one here -
https://lnkd.in/ei8qk982
Constructed two CAISO (California) Generation Supply Curves (in nominal $s) for 2009 and 2025 (can pull generation supply info from
https://lnkd.in/gaxU2JAd
) - need to make some assumptions, etc. to generate the variable O&M costs.
Added in the average demand for each year, the peak demand, and the average wholesale price for electricity in each year. (
https://lnkd.in/e3BFxnUd
)
Included the average price of natural gas for the two years as well, and for comparison escalated the 2009 prices to 2025 real values. (
https://lnkd.in/e_7ksuKV
)
In real terms natural gas prices are down about 30%, wholesale electricity is down 12%, but retail is up >80%.
In nominal terms gas prices are flat, wholesale is up 30% and retail electricity is up 162%.
While these are stark numbers, minimum wage in California has also risen dramatically from $8/hr to $16.50/hr in nominal terms
The impact of variable generation is evident, while the average wholesale price in 2009 intersected the generation supply curve between the average and peak MW load, in 2025 it intersects well above the average and peak (since at night and when the wind dies down the generation supply curve shifts dramatically). This was also seen in the ERCOT example.
In the ERCOT example the wholesale and retail electricity rates over the period moved together with electricity costs decreasing by 10% in real terms and gas reducing by 30%.
In this CAISO example, wholesale electricity rates have similarly decreased by 10% in real terms, gas has similarly reduced by 30%, but retail rates have increased by more than 80% in real 2025$ terms.
NOTE the lower values in the left curve are the nominal gas, wholesale, and retail prices adjusted to 2025$ values.
